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Widespread loss of safe lake ice access in response to a warming climate

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Acknowledgments We would like to thank the Arctic Mobilities team, including Alison Cook, Jackie Dawson, Chris Derksen, Stephen Howell, and Lawrence Mudryk, for extensive discussions and critical feedback on this research. We would also like to thank Aman Basu for assistance with data processing. Finally, we thank the Academic Editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and helpful feedback. The CESM2-LE simulations presented here have been conducted through a partnership between the Institute for Basic Sciences (IBS) Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) in South Korea and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the United States, repre- senting a broad collaborative effort between scientists from both centers. The simulations were conducted on the IBS/ICCP supercomputer “Aleph”. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Joshua Culpepper, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Data curation: Joshua Culpepper, Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway. Formal analysis: Joshua Culpepper, Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Funding acquisition: R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Investigation: Joshua Culpepper, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Methodology: Joshua Culpepper, Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway. Supervision: R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Validation: Lei Huang. Visualization: Joshua Culpepper, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Writing – original draft: Joshua Culpepper, Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma. Writing – review & editing: Joshua Culpepper, Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna

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Sharma. References 1. Grant L, Vanderkelen I, Gudmundsson L, Tan Z, Perroud M, Stepanenko VM, et al. Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing. Nat Geosci. 2021; 14: 849–854. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41561-021-00833-x 2. Newton AMW, Mullan DJ. Climate change and Northern Hemisphere lake and river ice phenology from 1931–2005. The Cryosphere. 2021; 15: 2211–2234. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021 3. Sharma S, Richardson DC, Woolway RI, Imrit MA, Bouffard D, Blagrave K, et al. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 2021; 126: e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348 4. Li X, Long D, Huang Q, Zhao F. The state and fate of lake ice thickness in the Northern Hemisphere. Science Bulletin. 2021; S2095927321006551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.015 PMID: 36546175 5. Weyhenmeyer GA, Obertegger U, Rudebeck H, Jakobsson E, Jansen J, Zdorovennova G, et al. Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming. Nat Commun. 2022; 13: 4974. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32633-1 PMID: 36008420 6. Dibike Y, Prowse T, Saloranta T, Ahmed R. Response of Northern Hemisphere lake-ice cover and lake- water thermal structure patterns to a changing climate. Hydrological Processes. 2011; 25: 2942–2953. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8068 7. Leppa¨ ranta M. Freezing of Lakes and the Evolution of their Ice Cover. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Ber- lin Heidelberg; 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29081-7 PLOS ONE

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Changing ice conditions inhibit safe use PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313994 December 11, 2024 16 / 19