Inequality of opportunity in selection procedures limits diversity in higher education: An intersectional study of Dutch selective higher education programs

determined at an age which is lower than in many other countries [39]. This contributes to inequality of opportunity [39]. In the final year of high school, pupils can apply to post-secondary education programs. Most higher general pupils enter HBO, but they could also enter vocational education. Most pre-university pupils enter university, but they too have the option to enter HBO or vocational education. Of these post-secondary education programs, only higher education institutions (HEIs) use selection to admit students. These include higher professional education (in Dutch: HBO–often referred to as university of applied sciences), and university. For sake of readabil- ity, we have used the Dutch abbreviation HBO in this manuscript. Within HEIs, most study programs are not selective, but programs may use specific eligibil- ity criteria. Applicants with other (non-traditional) educational backgrounds than specified in the eligibility criteria must prove that they meet equivalent educational levels [41]. For exam- ple, for many HBO programs, it is possible to apply with either a higher general diploma or a vocational education diploma. For many university programs, it is possible to apply with either a pre-university diploma, or with a completion certificate of all first-year courses of a (related) HBO study program called propedeuse. Some study programs have to use selection procedures, due to capacity limitations called numerus fixus (fixed number). When there are more eligible applicants than seats, institutions

must use at least two types of qualitative selection criteria (e.g. intelligence, motivation, study skills) to determine who will be offered a place in the program [42]. In the selection procedure, diversity may be lost, which could result in underrepresentation of certain groups. However, apart from four university health professions programs for which inequalities based on sex, migration background, socio-economic status and having healthcare professionals as parents were found [13], it is unknown to what extent this is the case across the entire HE domain. Therefore, we wanted to investigate the possible inequality of opportunity in all selective HE programs. We hypothesized that there could be study programs with less or no inequality of opportunity, and programs in which underrepresented applicants have higher odds of admis- sion. Programs with proven inequality of opportunity in the selection procedure, could then learn from the programs who offer equal or equitable opportunities to applicants. Additionally, based on the importance of a representative workforce in certain labor markets (e.g. health- care), we were interested in whether there are study programs where potential best practices could be found in admitting underrepresented applicant groups. Thus, we aimed to answer the following research questions: 1. How representative are student populations of selective HE programs, compared to: a) the applicant pool; b) the higher general population and pre-university population; and c) their age cohort?

2. Which demographic background variables (e.g. sex, migration background, year of birth, socio-economic status, parental work sector) are associated with an applicant’s odds of admission into selective HE programs? 3. What are, from an intersectional perspective, the acceptance rates of applicants with all, some or none of the background characteristics positively associated with odds of admission? PLOS ONE Inequality of opportunity in Dutch selection procedures limits diversity in higher education PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0292805 October 13, 2023 4 / 24