Factors influencing farming households’ climate change adaptation strategies in Central Vietnam

TRA 0.005 0.902 1.021 0.991 0.117 2.563 0.321 0.534 1.765 0.432 0.334 1.876 1.78 Number of observations 356 LR chi-square 81.032* Log Likelihood −398.214 Pseudo-R square (McFadden) 0.6193 Goodness-of-Fit (Chi-square)/Pearson/ 182.342 ***, **: significant at 1% and 5% error levels, respectively. Source: Study results (2024). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058.t005 Table 6. Marginal effects from MNL model of adaptation strategies. Explanatory variables Code Vegetable production Shrimp farming Salt-tolerant rice varieties Lotus-fish farming Gender GEN 1.324 0.316** 0.087*** 0.412** Household Size SIZE 0.005 0.042 −0.097*** 0.071* Education level EDU 0.021 −0.058*** −0.177*** 0.096** Age AGE 0.007 −0.007** 0.005** −0.002*** Monthly income INC −0.032** 0.039*** 0.067*** 0.001*** Farming experience EXP 0.011** −0.015*** 0.061*** 0.004*** Percentage of soil salinity SAL 0.031*** 0.086*** −0.008** 0.056*** Location of farmland POS −0.061*** −0.093* 0.054*** 0.011 Farmland area ARE 0.026 0.002*** −0.043** 0.042** Access information from the state INF 0.041 0.105* 0.121** 0.031 Membership of the local associations MEM 0.098** 0.123** 0.342** 0.046* Access credit from policy bank CRE 0.014 0.008** 0.005 0.006** Participate in training courses TRA 0.042*** 0.086*** 0.341 0.037*** ***, **: significant at 1% and 5% error levels, respectively. Source: Study results (2025). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058.t006

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 15 / 22 varieties (+8.7%) than female-headed households. Similarly, household size (SIZE) showed differentiated effects: while increasing household size decreased the probability of adopting salt-tolerant rice varieties by 9.7%, it increased the proba- bility of lotus-fish adoption by 7.1%. Education level (EDU) exhibited mixed effects. Higher educational attainment negatively impacted the likelihood of adopting shrimp farming (−5.8%) and salt-tolerant rice (−17.7%) but positively influenced the adoption of lotus-fish farming (+9.6%), likely due to the technical complexity of this method. Age (AGE) was positively correlated with the adoption of salt-tolerant rice varieties (+0.5% per year) but negatively associated with shrimp (−0.7%) and lotus-fish farming (−0.2%), which require higher physical labor and technical adapta- tion. No quadratic relationship with age squared was observed. Monthly income (INC) positively influenced the adoption of shrimp farming (+3.9%), salt-tolerant rice (+6.7%), and lotus-fish (+1%) models, while it had a negative effect on vegetable production (−3.2%). Farming experience (EXP) had a positive impact on vegetable production (+1.1%), lotus-fish (+0.4%), and salt-tolerant rice (+6.1%) but reduced the likelihood of shrimp adoption (−1.5%). The proportion of salinized land (SAL) was positively associated with shrimp farming (+0.6%), vegetable (+3.1%), and lotus-

fish farming (+5.6%), while it reduced the adoption probability of new rice varieties (−0.8%). Similarly, the current position of land affected by salinity (POS) increased rice adoption (+5.4%) but decreased shrimp (−9.3%) and vegetable (−6.1%) uptake. Agricultural land area (ARE) positively influenced the adoption of shrimp (+0.2%) and lotus-fish (+4.2%) methods, but negatively affected rice variety adoption (−4.3%), suggesting that land-extensive methods like shrimp farming are more feasible for larger landholders. Access to climate information (INF) increased adoption probabilities of salt-tolerant rice (+12.1%) and shrimp farming (+10.5%). Membership in civic organizations (MEM) significantly enhanced the probability of adopting all strategies: rice (+34.2%), shrimp (+12.3%), vegetable (+9.8%), and lotus-fish (+4.6%). Access to public credit (CRE) marginally influenced shrimp (+0.8%) and lotus-fish (+0.6%) farming adoption but was not statistically significant for other strategies, likely due to limited credit access among surveyed households. Finally, participation in training programs (TRA) had a strong positive impact on adoption of all strategies except vegetable production. Households participating in training were more likely to adopt salt-tolerant rice (+8.6%), vegetable production (+4.2%), and lotus-fish (+3.7%) methods. 4. Discussions The findings derived from the MNL model substantiate the proposition that climate change adaptation at the household

level is a complex and multidimensional process influenced by a confluence of socio-economic, demographic, institutional, and environmental factors. These results not only align with existing theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence from similar contexts in Asia and Africa but also contribute novel insights specific to Vietnam’s Central Coastal region—a zone characterized by high climate vulnerability and socio-ecological diversity. A key insight from the analysis is the gendered nature of climate adaptation. The data clearly indicate that male-headed households are more likely to adopt a broader set of adaptation strategies, including those requiring greater technical knowledge and access to resources, such as shrimp and lotus-fish farming. This pattern is consistent with prior research by Datta et al (2024), Ngigi et al (2017) and Belay et al (2017) which found that men in rural settings are often better integrated into formal and informal networks, have greater access to agricultural extension services, and possess stronger agency in household decision-making [20,24,55]. Moreover, Parry et al. (2023) and Sallah et al (2023) also emphasized that entrenched gender norms continue to limit women’s access to productive assets and information, thereby constrain- ing their adaptive capacity [17,23]. These findings reinforce the importance of integrating gender-sensitive policies in climate adaptation programs, particularly in rural agrarian settings where intra-household dynamics and social hierarchies influence resource distribution and decision-making.

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 16 / 22 The role of education as both an enabler and a filter for adaptation strategy selection is also noteworthy. While higher levels of education were associated with a reduced likelihood of engaging in labor-intensive agricultural adaptations such as shrimp or salt-tolerant rice cultivation, they were positively linked with more knowledge-intensive approaches like the lotus-fish model. This finding resonates with the work of Batunga-wayo et al (2023) and Cammarano et al (2020) who posited that education increases farmers’ capacity to process information, evaluate risk, and innovate [14,61]. However, it may also suggest a movement among better-educated individuals away from traditional agriculture toward non-farm income activities, reflecting structural shifts in rural labor markets. Age and farming experience exhibited a dual role in shaping adaptation behaviors. Older farmers were more inclined to maintain traditional practices, such as rice farming using salt-tolerant varieties, possibly due to risk aversion and accumu- lated knowledge. In contrast, younger or more experienced farmers appeared more open to adopting complex systems like lotus-fish farming or diversifying into aquaculture. These results parallel observations by Akum et al (2022) and Der Tambile et al (2024), suggesting that age is not only a proxy for experience but also for behavioral rigidity, whereas experi- ence enhances capacity for strategic adaptation depending on perceived risk and opportunity [1,10].

The significance of household income in determining adaptation choices cannot be overstated. Households with higher income levels were more capable of investing in capital-intensive adaptation methods such as shrimp farming and aqua- culture systems. Conversely, households with limited income were more likely to rely on traditional or subsistence strat- egies, and less likely to engage in innovation. The negative association between income and vegetable production may reflect both its low economic return and high labor input, discouraging wealthier households from pursuing it. This aligns with findings from Li et al (2023) and Datta et al (2024), who highlighted the pivotal role of economic resources in enabling or constraining adaptive choices, particularly in resource-scarce settings [6,20]. From an environmental perspective, both the extent of salinized land and the spatial position of agricultural plots emerged as significant determinants of strategy selection. Households experiencing severe salinity on their plots favored the adoption of more resilient rice varieties, whereas those in moderately affected areas diversified toward aquaculture or integrated farming. These patterns reflect an adaptive logic based on land suitability and are consistent with studies by Ayal and Leal (2017) and Ayal et al. (2021), who emphasized that agro-ecological conditions critically shape both the feasibility and profitability of adaptation strategies. The salinity threshold, beyond which certain crops or models become

unviable, presents a strong environmental constraint that must be incorporated into local planning and land use zoning [38,63]. Institutional factors—notably access to information, credit, training, and civic networks—were also found to play a vital role in facilitating adaptation. Access to climate-related information from public authorities significantly increased the likelihood of adopting salt-tolerant rice and shrimp farming. This finding aligns with Getahun et al. (2021), who argued that timely and reliable information is essential for informed decision-making [39]. Membership in civic organizations such as the Women’s Union also increased the probability of adopting all four strategies, underscoring the role of collective action and social capital in building adaptive capacity. Particularly in Vietnam, where the Women’s Union has been instrumental in disseminating information, facilitating microcredit access, and organizing training sessions, these organizations serve as critical intermediaries between state-led adaptation policies and community-level action. Interestingly, while access to public credit had a modest influence—only significantly affecting shrimp and lotus-fish adoption—it reveals deeper structural limitations in the rural credit market. Many households remain excluded from formal financial services, limiting their ability to make upfront investments in adaptive infrastructure or technologies. This finding echoes the conclusions of Saguye (2016) and Belay et al. (2017), who noted that credit constraints remain one of the

most significant barriers to smallholder adaptation across developing countries [41,55]. Participation in training programs had a robust and positive effect on the adoption of nearly all adaptation strategies, with the exception of vegetable production. This supports the view that climate adaptation, particularly in contexts involv- ing technical innovations or ecological complexity (e.g., saline-affected land), requires continuous learning and institutional

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 17 / 22 support. Training enhances not only farmers’ awareness but also their practical skills to implement context-appropriate practices. Similar conclusions were reached by Ngigi et al. (2017) and Asrat and Simane (2018), who emphasized the capacity-building role of agricultural extension systems and the need to institutionalize adaptive learning within rural devel- opment frameworks [24,25]. In synthesis, these findings affirm that adaptation decisions are not isolated technical choices but are deeply embed- ded in a broader socio-economic and institutional context. They support the literature on the socio-ecological embedded- ness of adaptation behavior, highlighting that successful climate resilience planning must consider differential access to resources, power relations, gender roles, and ecological constraints. For policy, this implies a move away from “one-size- fits-all” prescriptions toward more differentiated, inclusive, and place-based adaptation strategies. Such approaches must simultaneously enhance resource access, build institutional capacity, and promote knowledge co-production between communities and decision-makers. 5. Conclusions and recommendations This study has empirically examined the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies among farming households in Quang Binh province, Central Vietnam—a region acutely affected by saltwater intrusion, droughts, and other climate-

induced stressors. By employing a MNL model based on a household survey of 356 respondents, the study identified a wide range of socio-economic, demographic, institutional, and environmental factors influencing households’ adaptation choices. The findings confirm that climate adaptation behavior is highly context-specific and shaped by a complex inter- play between resources, knowledge, and perceived environmental risks. Notably, the results reveal that gender, education, household size, income, age, and farming experience significantly influence the likelihood of selecting specific adaptation strategies. Moreover, environmental characteristics such as the proportion and location of salinized land, institutional variables including access to climate information, credit, training, and civic networks, further explain the heterogeneity in adaptation decisions across households. The study contributes to the growing body of literature emphasizing that adaptation to climate change is not merely a matter of access to technology or exposure to risk, but a deeply social process involving power dynamics, access to insti- tutions, and socio-ecological knowledge. These insights are particularly relevant for transitional economies like Vietnam, where rural households are increasingly required to respond autonomously to climate threats amidst resource constraints and institutional limitations. Based on the empirical findings and in response to the urgent need for locally tailored climate resilience strategies, this

study offers a set of targeted recommendations to enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in salinity-prone and climate-vulnerable regions of Vietnam. These recommendations are structured to reflect both the multidimensional drivers of adaptation behavior and the institutional mechanisms required for effective policy implementation. 5.1 Promote gender-inclusive adaptation policies Given the significant influence of gender on adaptation behavior, policies must be designed to empower women and female-headed households. This includes improving women’s access to agricultural extension services, credit programs, and training opportunities. Strengthening the role of women’s unions and grassroots civic organizations will be critical for enabling inclusive participation in climate adaptation initiatives and enhancing household-level decision-making. 5.2 Design tailored training programs on climate-resilient agricultural practices The study finds that participation in training programs significantly increases the likelihood of adopting technically demand- ing adaptation strategies, such as salt-tolerant rice cultivation and lotus-fish integrated farming. Therefore, training should move beyond awareness-raising to focus on hands-on, context-specific modules addressing soil salinity management, water use efficiency, crop diversification, and integrated aquaculture systems. These programs should be coordinated by

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 18 / 22 the Department of Agricultural Extension in partnership with local universities, research institutes, and farmer cooperatives. Training should be delivered at the commune level, with special attention to low-income and female-headed households. 5.3 Expand access to credit through multi-tiered rural financial systems Access to credit was found to be a modest but significant enabler of adaptation, particularly for capital-intensive strategies. A multi-tiered approach to rural credit should be adopted by scaling up the role of the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies (VBSP), while also fostering microfinance institutions (MFIs) and agricultural credit cooperatives. Priority lending schemes should focus on households in salinity-affected regions, offering low-interest loans tied to climate-resilient agricultural investments. These credit packages should be gender-sensitive, with simplified application procedures and technical sup- port integrated into loan programs. 5.4 Introduce targeted subsidies for salt-tolerant rice varieties The widespread but income-sensitive adoption of salt-tolerant rice varieties underscores the need for targeted input subsi- dies. We recommend implementing a voucher-based subsidy scheme to reduce the financial burden of acquiring certified salt-tolerant seeds and associated training. The program should prioritize small and medium-scale farmers and be admin-

istered through provincial agricultural departments in coordination with commune-level authorities. Furthermore, continued public investment in research and development (R&D) of improved salt-tolerant cultivars should be linked to extension services to ensure effective dissemination and uptake. 5.5 Strengthen climate information systems and local advisory services Access to timely and reliable information on climate variability, salinity levels, and adaptation techniques was found to sig- nificantly influence strategy adoption. Government agencies, in collaboration with local authorities, should invest in climate information systems that provide localized forecasts, seasonal advisories, and early warning alerts. These services should be integrated into agricultural extension channels and delivered in user-friendly formats, including SMS, radio, and village loudspeaker systems. 5.6 Support community-based adaptation and civic participation Membership in local civic organizations positively influenced adaptation uptake across all strategies. Policy should encourage the development of farmer-based organizations, cooperatives, and climate adaptation clubs that facilitate peer learning, shared investment, and collective action. Programs supporting women’s participation in such groups—especially through linkages with microcredit, training, and extension networks—should be prioritized as part of a broader effort to build social capital and institutional resilience. 5.7 Integrate land-use planning with adaptation strategies

Environmental factors such as land area, soil salinity, and land location were found to significantly shape adaptation behavior. Therefore, local land-use planning should incorporate climate vulnerability mapping and support land realloca- tion or conversion to more climate-compatible agricultural uses. For instance, land zoned for shrimp farming or integrated aquaculture systems should be prioritized in high-salinity zones, while rice cultivation with salt-tolerant varieties should be promoted in areas with moderate salinization. 5.8 Develop modular adaptation support packages Finally, adaptation interventions should not follow a one-size-fits-all model. Instead, modular adaptation support pack- ages—combining training, financial access, improved seed technologies, and climate information—should be designed for

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 19 / 22 different farmer profiles (e.g., land-poor households, female-headed households, experienced vs. novice farmers). These packages should be scalable, replicable, and tailored to ecological and socio-economic conditions across Vietnam’s coastal regions. 6. Study limitations Despite offering valuable insights into household-level adaptation to climate change in Central Vietnam, this study has several limitations. First, the cross-sectional design restricts the ability to infer causal relationships, as adaptation behav- iors are inherently dynamic and may evolve over time. Second, the reliance on self-reported data introduces the possibility of recall bias and subjective interpretation, particularly in responses related to climate events and adaptation decisions. Third, the use of the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model assumes the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), which may not fully reflect the real-world complexity where adaptation strategies can be interrelated or sequential. Fourth, the study focused on four prominent adaptation strategies, potentially overlooking traditional, incremental, or less visible coping practices adopted by households. Fifth, while socio-economic, institutional, and environmental variables were considered, the study did not incorporate psychological, cultural, or normative factors such as risk perception, social trust, or commu- nity beliefs, which are known to influence behavioral choices. Sixth, the geographic focus on three communes in Tuyen

Hoa district limits the generalizability of the findings to other regions in Vietnam with different socio-ecological profiles. Finally, due to data constraints, the analysis could not include important variables such as market accessibility, land tenure security, migration dynamics, and remittance flows, which may significantly shape adaptation capacity and decisions. These limitations underscore the need for future research using longitudinal, mixed-method approaches and broader geo- graphic coverage to provide a more comprehensive understanding of climate adaptation among rural households. Supporting information S1 Data. (XLSX) Author contributions Conceptualization: Bui Huy Nhuong, Dinh Duc Truong, Le Huy Huan. Data curation: Duong Duc Tam. Formal analysis: Bui Thi Hoang Lan. Methodology: Dinh Duc Truong, Le Huy Huan, Bui Thi Hoang Lan, Duong Duc Tam. Project administration: Bui Huy Nhuong, Le Huy Huan, Nguyen Dieu Hang. Resources: Bui Thi Hoang Lan. Supervision: Le Huy Huan. Validation: Le Huy Huan, Bui Thi Hoang Lan, Nguyen Dieu Hang. Writing – original draft: Dinh Duc Truong. Writing – review & editing: Dinh Duc Truong, Nguyen Dieu Hang, Duong Duc Tam. References 1. Der Tambile E, Ramachandran VS, Rajendrakumar S. Rural livelihoods sustainability in South Asia and Africa: a systematic review with bibliometric analysis. Environ Sustain Indic. 2024;5:410–20. 2. Kone S, Balde A, Zahonogo P, et al. A systematic review of recent estimations of climate change impact on agriculture and adaptation strategies

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