Factors influencing farming households’ climate change adaptation strategies in Central Vietnam

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328058 July 10, 2025 2 / 22 1. Introduction Climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events have had profound effects on agricultural systems, particularly in countries which geographical and climatic conditions render them highly sensitive to environmental variability [1–3]. These unpredictable climatic shifts not only undermine the quality and productivity of agricultural outputs but also compel farmers to invest more heavily in adaptation measures, ultimately reducing profit margins and exacerbating economic losses [4–7]. Alarmingly, approximately 52% of global agricultural land is currently classified as moderately to severely degraded [5]. The compounded effects of climate change and extreme weather can trigger a cascade of socio-economic instabilities, contrib- uting to poverty and development challenges across household, community, and national scales [6–10]. For farmers, a key approach to mitigating these adverse impacts is to adjust agricultural systems in ways that enhance resilience to changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and climate-induced hazards [11,12]. Broadly defined, climate change adaptation refers to adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or anticipated climatic stimuli or their effects, with the aim of moderating harm or exploiting potential benefits [13,14]. These behavioral adjustments can significantly reduce agricultural vulnerability and exposure to climatic risks [15,16]. Adaptation,

however, is inherently complex, encompassing multi-dimensional and multi-scalar processes [17–19]. It may occur in various forms—autonomous or planned, and proactive or reactive—and can also be classified by temporal duration, spatial scope, and strategic approach [20,21]. Farmers’ selection of adaptation strategies is typically influenced by a combination of demographic, socio-economic, institutional, and agro- ecological factors. Nonetheless, empirical evidence suggests that the effect of these determinants varies depending on the specific livelihood systems and agricultural contexts in which farmers operate [22,23]. Consequently, there is a pressing need to identify the key factors shaping adaptation choices and the capacity of farmers to mitigate climate change impacts on their environments, livelihoods, and associated socio-economic and institutional structures, thereby informing effective policy instru- ments and management frameworks [24–26]. The Asian region, including Vietnam, is among the most climate-vulnerable areas globally, characterized by rapidly shifting climatic conditions that pose substantial challenges for communities attempting to respond and adapt [27,28]. Vietnam, in particular, is identified as one of the five countries most severely affected by cli- mate change, owing to its long coastline, high population density, and concentra- tion of socio-economic activities in low-lying coastal areas [27,29,30]. According to Department of Climage Change (2020), a 100 cm rise in sea level could inundate

approximately 40,000 km²—equivalent to 12.1% of the nation’s current land area— potentially displacing up to 17.1 million people [27]. This rise would devastate the Red River and Mekong Deltas, two of the most critical agricultural and economic zones in the country [30]. Over the past decade, the economic damage attributable to climate change has been estimated at 2.5% to 3.0% of GDP annually, and in the absence of effective adaptation policies, projections indicate this figure may rise to and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data availability statement: All data are in the manuscript and/or supporting information files. Funding: This study is funded by the National Economics University, Vietnam. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.